How do meteorologists forecast the weather days in advance?
Quick Answer
They combine observations from weather stations, balloons, radar, satellites, and ocean sensors with computer models. The models simulate the atmosphere’s future state using physics.
The Full Story
Weather forecasting begins with large amounts of data from across the globe: surface stations, aircraft reports, radiosondes, radar, satellites, and buoys. Supercomputers then solve equations for fluid motion, temperature, moisture, and pressure to predict how the atmosphere will evolve. Because the atmosphere is chaotic, small errors grow over time, so forecasts are generally more reliable for a few days than for a week or more. Modern forecasts have become much better since the numerical weather prediction breakthroughs of the mid-20th century.
Key Facts
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"A weather forecast is basically a giant physics calculation running on a supercomputer"